Opinion: Michigan football’s 2025 win total underrated at 8.5 with favorable schedule….

Opinion: Michigan football’s 2025 win total underrated at 8.5 with favorable schedule….

The 2025 college football season is months away, but early win total projections are already stirring debate. One line that stands out is Michigan football’s over/under set at just 8.5 wins. For a program that has reached the College Football Playoff in three consecutive seasons, including a national championship in 2023, this projection feels overly cautious. When factoring in Michigan’s schedule, recruiting depth, and coaching continuity, it’s clear that the Wolverines are being undervalued.

 

First, let’s address the obvious: Michigan is undergoing some transition. With Jim Harbaugh now in the NFL, new head coach Sherrone Moore takes the reins. While a first-year head coach often raises questions, Moore is no stranger to the Michigan program. He served as Harbaugh’s offensive coordinator and stepped in as interim head coach during key games in 2023, notably leading the team to victories over Penn State and Ohio State. His leadership during those high-pressure moments speaks volumes. Continuity on the staff and system should prevent any significant regression.

Despite key departures to the NFL—including J.J. McCarthy, Blake Corum, and several defensive standouts—Michigan’s depth is far from bare. The Wolverines have consistently recruited at a top-10 level, and the development pipeline remains strong. Players like Donovan Edwards and Will Johnson are poised to step into leadership roles, and there’s an influx of young talent ready to make an impact. While the offense may have growing pains early, the defense is expected to remain elite under coordinator Jesse Minter, a rising star in his own right.

 

What truly makes the 8.5 win total underrated, however, is Michigan’s 2025 schedule. The Wolverines avoid both Georgia and Alabama in SEC crossover games and host key matchups against Ohio State and USC in Ann Arbor. Road games include Maryland, Rutgers, and an unproven UCLA team. None of these environments are particularly daunting, especially for a Michigan team that has thrived in Big Ten play over the last three years. The path to nine wins is not only plausible—it’s probable.

 

There are certainly questions about quarterback play and offensive explosiveness. Still, Michigan has consistently won with a formula built on defense, toughness, and trench dominance. That identity won’t change under Moore. The Wolverines have one of the top offensive lines in the nation and should control the line of scrimmage in most games. With favorable matchups and a manageable schedule, even a modest offensive output should be enough to reach double-digit wins.

 

In betting terms, Michigan over 8.5 wins looks like one of the most appealing plays on the board. History, coaching stability, depth, and schedule all point to a program that, while facing transition, remains built to win now. The Wolverines may not repeat as national champions, but writing them off as an 8-win team is premature. Expect them to surpass expectations—again.